Spain v France preview: Nasri could hold the key

Published on Total Football Magazine (online). Full article can be found HERE 

------------------------------------------------------------- 

The third quarter-final of Euro 2012 will take place this evening between France and Spain.

France will be looking to bounce back from their 2-0 shock midweek defeat to Sweden, but face tough opposition in a Spain side yet to taste defeat in this year’s tournament. Alongside data analysed by Castrol Edge, here are some glimpses into what key battles can determine the outcome of tonight’s match in Donetsk.

Out of favour at Chelsea, Spaniard Fernando Torres has been in fine form for his country, finding the net twice in just 151 minutes of action and will be hoping to replicate this success and put his side into Wednesday’s semi-final.

France’s hit man Karim Benzema has had a slower start to his Euro 2012 campaign. Having attempted 17 shots without scoring, he holds the unwanted record of the most shots without scoring in the competition. Benzema will want to fix this quickly, emulating the form he has shown in last season’s La Liga when netting 21 goals in 34 appearances.

With good scoring form, strikers need good service. Spain have scored in all three of their group games, and before the knockout stage had scored the most goals as a nation. Whilst France have scored just three goals in their last three matches, they have not been short of chances.

Both teams will look upon their respective playmakers in David Silva and Franck Ribery for creativity, with both featuring prominently in their previous matches. As Castrol Edge analysed, Silva has led the way this tournament, netting a goal and creating three more in contrast to Ribery’s solitary single assist, yet with a slightly superior pass completion rate and chance creation, the Bayern Munich talisman’s threat is ever-present.

Nasri could hold the key

Alongside Ribery, Samir Nasri could hold the key to unlocking Spain’s defence. Having scored already this tournament, he has also set up 14 chances for his team-mates - nine more than Spaniard Andres Iniesta. This is not to say Iniesta has not been a threat, with the Barcelona man boasting an assist and an impressive 89% shooting accuracy from nine shots.

In charge of dictating the midfield will be fellow Catalan talisman Xavi and Newcastle’s in-form Frenchman Yohan Cabaye. If fit to play, Cabaye will be responsible for building chances for Les Bleus this evening, yet should also be feared in attacking positions after clinching a goal and an assist in just 152 minutes’ play.

Xavi however excels in midfield and, as Castrol Edge analysed, has amassed an astonishing 345 passes in just three games – over three times that of Cabaye. Of these, 15 led to clear cut chances and Xavi should feel unlucky that none of these have yet led to goals.

Where France could falter in this tie will be in defence, and Laurent Blanc’s side will need a strong back-line to neutralise Spain’s attacking threat and silence their critics. Whilst Frenchman Adil Rami has excelled in his ability to clear his lines, he has attempted just three tackles in his last three appearances, with only one being successful. In contrast, Real Madrid star Sergio Ramos has won seven of his 10 tackles in the same time – a figure only being surpassed by three other defenders.

France will be hoping for goalkeeper Hugo Lloris to be on top form later if they are to have any hope of keeping Spain’s strike force at bay. In the group stages, the Lyon player has saved just 62.5% of shots faced, Castrol Edge revealed, and Lloris must improve this stat if he is to record his second clean sheet of the tournament. Spain can feel confident however with Iker Casillas in goal, with the Spaniard saving 91% of shots faced – the highest save percentage of all 15 goalkeepers featuring this summer.

Data collected by Castrol Edge suggests Spain have a 66% chance of beating France and booking their place in the semi-finals, where they will play Portugal.

The last time these two sides met competitively saw France record a 3-1 victory at the 2006 World Cup, yet only two of the victor’s starting XI may feature this evening - Franck Ribey and Florent Malouda. As they will argue, the European and World Champions are beatable, and Les Bleus will be trying to prove just that in Ukraine.

By James Hartnett